MARKET WEEK: NOVEMBER 5, 2018

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Last Week’s Economic Headlines

• October saw a whopping 250,000 new jobs added while the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job gains occurred in health care, manufacturing, construction, and transportation and warehousing. There were about 6.1 million unemployed — down almost 450,000 from a year ago. The labor force participation rate increased by 0.2 percentage point to 62.9%. The employment-population ratio edged up by 0.2 percentage point to 60.6% in October and had increased by 0.4 percentage point over the year. The average workweek increased by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in October. Also in October, average hourly earnings for all employees rose by $0.05 to $27.30. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by $0.83, or 3.1%.

• The trade deficit continued to expand in September. The goods and services deficit was $54.0 billion, or 1.3%, in September, up $0.7 billion from August. September exports increased by $3.1 billion, while imports were $3.8 billion more than August imports. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $40.7 billion, or 10.1%, from the same period in 2017. Exports increased $143.8 billion, or 8.2%. Imports increased $184.5 billion, or 8.6%.

• Consumers’ income rose by 0.2% in September, while spending jumped 0.4%, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable (after-tax) personal income also rose by 0.2% for the month. Inflation was steady as prices for consumer goods and services increased 0.1%. However, excluding food and energy, prices bumped ahead by 0.2%. For the year, consumer prices are up 2.0%, right at the inflation target set by the Federal Reserve.

• Reaching a five-month high, a spurt in new orders helped drive manufacturing in October, according to Markit’s report on manufacturing. The bump in new orders coupled with efforts to clear backlogs drove new hires, which also outpaced September’s rate.

• The October 2018 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®, not atypically, differed in its assessment of manufacturing conditions compared to Markit’s survey. The ISM® report had new orders, as well as production and employment, decrease. Oftentimes, the difference between the surveys lies in the number of purchasing managers who respond to each survey and how the responses are weighted.

• For the week ended October 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance was 214,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims remained at 1.1% for the week ended October 20. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended October 20 was 1,631,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the prior week’s level, which was revised up by 2,000. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since July 28, 1973, when it was 1,603,000.

Eye on the Week Ahead

The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week. Speculation is that the Committee will maintain interest rates at their current level, although that is not a certainty.

Data sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market data: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

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